Hello friends! Curious about how to properly predict stock prices?
I’ve now released the third video in this YouTube mini-series.
For those unfamiliar: this is a video series that debunks common mistakes found in nearly all blog articles / Github repos claiming to do “stock price predictions with LSTMs”.
These are typically written by non-experts in the field just looking for clicks, and I have a lot of fun breaking down precisely what they’re doing wrong.
Why is this important?
Beginners are often fooled by such content, wasting money on courses to learn things that don’t work. Even worse, they may end up putting such examples on their own Github accounts or in their portfolios / resumes, worsening their chances of getting a job in the field.
To be clear: the bad part isn’t that they learned something that doesn’t work (although that is pretty bad by itself). The bad part is, they don’t even understand why it doesn’t work. They are confident that it does and will fight me over it! (That is, until I ask them to verify or rebut any of the claims I’ve made).
Thus, not only does this stuff not work (due to all the mistakes I outline in my video series), but it could actually be detrimental to getting a job and working in this area. These are not just harmless mistakes!
The first video discussed why min-max scaling over the train set doesn’t work.
The second video discussed why using prices as inputs (i.e. lagged prices to build an autoregressive model) doesn’t work.
This third video (this video) will discuss why using prices as targets does not work.
Ever come across a machine learning / data science blog demonstrating how to predict stock prices using an autoregressive model, with past stock prices as input?
It’s been awhile, but I am finally continuing this YouTube mini-series I started awhile back, which goes over common mistakes in popular blogs on predicting stock prices with machine learning. This is the 2nd installment.
It is about why you shouldn’t use prices as inputs.
Time series analysis is becoming an increasingly important analytical tool.
With inflation on the rise, many are turning to the stock market and cryptocurrencies in order to ensure their savings do not lose their value.
COVID-19 has shown us how forecasting is an essential tool for driving public health decisions.
Businesses are becoming increasingly efficient, forecasting inventory and operational needs ahead of time.
Let me cut to the chase. This is not your average Time Series Analysis course. This course covers modern developments such as deep learning, time series classification (which can drive user insights from smartphone data, or read your thoughts from electrical activity in the brain), and more.
We will cover techniques such as:
ETS and Exponential Smoothing
Holt’s Linear Trend Model
ARIMA, SARIMA, SARIMAX, and Auto ARIMA
ACF and PACF
Vector Autoregression and Moving Average Models (VAR, VMA, VARMA)
Machine Learning Models (including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines, and Random Forests)
Deep Learning Models (Artificial Neural Networks, Convolutional Neural Networks, and Recurrent Neural Networks)
GRUs and LSTMs for Time Series Forecasting
We will cover applications such as:
Time series forecasting of sales data
Time series forecasting of stock prices and stock returns
Time series classification of smartphone data to predict user behavior
The VIP version of the course (obtained by purchasing the course NOW during the VIP period) will cover even more exciting topics, such as:
As always, please note that the VIP period may not last forever, and if / when the course becomes “non-VIP”, the VIP contents will be removed. If you purchased the VIP version, you will retain permanent access to the VIP content via my website, simply by letting me know via email you’d like access (you only need to email if I announce the VIP period is ending).
I wanted to get this course into your hands early. Some sections are still in the editing stages, particularly:
Convolutional Neural Networks (done, but more to be added later)
Recurrent Neural Networks (done, but more to be added later)
(VIP) FB Prophet
+MORE VIP CONTENT (it’s a surprise!)
UPDATE: The crossed-out items have since been added. There is no timeline for the remaining “surprise” lectures – it’ll be a surprise! 😉
So what are you waiting for? Get the VIP version of Time Series Analysis NOW:
(as usual, this coupon lasts only 30 days, so don’t wait!)
This is a MASSIVE (20 hours) Financial Engineering course covering the core fundamentals of financial engineering and financial analysis from scratch. We will go in-depth into all the classic topics, such as:
Exploratory data analysis, significance testing, correlations
Alpha and beta
Advanced Pandas Data Frame manipulation for time series and finance
Time series analysis, simple moving average, exponentially-weighted moving average
Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model
ARIMA and SARIMA
Efficient Market Hypothesis
Random Walk Hypothesis
Time series forecasting (“stock price prediction”)
Modern portfolio theory
Efficient frontier / Markowitz bullet
Maximizing the Sharpe ratio
Convex optimization with Linear Programming and Quadratic Programming
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
In addition, we will look at various non-traditional techniques which stem purely from the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence, such as:
Reinforcement learning and Q-learning
We will learn about the greatest flub made in the past decade by marketers posing as “machine learning experts” who promise to teach unsuspecting students how to “predict stock prices with LSTMs”. You will learn exactly why their methodology is fundamentally flawed and why their results are complete nonsense. It is a lesson in how not to apply AI in finance.
List of VIP-only Contents
As with my Tensorflow 2 release, some of the VIP content will be a surprise and will be released in stages. Currently, the entirety of the Algorithmic Trading sections are VIP sections. Newly added VIP sections include Statistical Factor Models and “The Lazy Programmer Bonus Offer”. Here’s a full list:
Classic Algorithmic Trading – Trend Following Strategy
You will learn how moving averages can be applied to do algorithmic trading.
Machine Learning-Based Trading Strategy
Forecast returns in order to determine when to buy and sell.
I give you a full introduction to Reinforcement Learning from scratch, and then we apply it to build a Q-Learning trader. Note that this is *not* the same as the example I used in my Tensorflow 2, PyTorch, and Reinforcement Learning courses. I think the example included in this course is much more principled and robust.
Statistical Factor Models
The CAPM is one of the most renowned financial models in history, but did you know it’s only the simplest factor model, with just a single factor? To go beyond just this single factor model, we will learn about statistical factor models, where the multiple “factors” are found automatically using only the data.
The Lazy Programmer Bonus Offer
There are marketers out there who want to capitalize on your enthusiastic interest in finance, and unfortunately what they are teaching you is utter and complete garbage.
They will claim that they can “predict stock prices with LSTMs” and show you charts like this with nearly perfect stock price predictions.
Hint: if they can do this, why do they bother putting effort into making courses? Wouldn’t they already be billionaires?
Have you ever wondered if you are taking such a course from a fake data scientist / marketer? If so, just send me a message, and I will tell you whether or not you are taking such a course. (Hint: many of you are) I will give you a list of mistakes they made so you can look out for them yourself, and avoid “learning” things which will ultimately make YOU look very bad in front of potential future employers.
Believe me, if you ever try to get a job in machine learning or data science and you talk about a project where you “predicted stock prices with LSTMs”, all you will be demonstrating is how incompetent you are. I don’t want to see any of my students falling for this! Save yourself from this embarrassing scenario by taking the “Lazy Programmer Offer”!
Please note: The VIP coupon will work only for the next month (starting from the coupon creation time). It’s unknown whether the VIP period will renew after that time.
After that, although the VIP content will be removed from Udemy, all who purchased the VIP course will get permanent free access to these VIP contents on deeplearningcourses.com.
In case it’s not clear, the process is very easy. For those folks who want the “step-by-step” instructions:
STEP 1) I announce the VIP content will be removed.
STEP 2) You email me with proof that you purchased the course during the VIP period. Do NOT email me earlier as it will just get buried.
STEP 3) I will give you free access to the VIP materials for this course on deeplearningcourses.com.
Benefits of taking this course
Learn the knowledge you need to work at top tier investment firms
Gain practical, real-world quantitative skills that can be applied within and outside of finance
Make better decisions regarding your own finances
Personally, I think this is the most interesting and action-packed course I have created yet. My last few courses were cool, but they were all about topics which I had already covered in the past! GANs, NLP, Transfer Learning, Recommender Systems, etc etc. all just machine learning topics I have covered several times in different libraries. This course contains new, fresh content and concepts I have never covered in any of my courses, ever.
This is the first course I’ve created that extends into a niche area of AI application. It goes outside of AI and into domain expertise. An in-depth topic such as finance deserves its own course. This is that course. These are topics you will never learn in a generic data science or machine learning course. However, as a student of AI, you will recognize many of our tools and methods being applied, such as statistical inference, supervised and unsupervised learning, convex optimization, and optimal control. This allows us to go deeper than your run of the mill financial engineering course, and it becomes more than just the sum of its parts.